Roblox already looks to be recovering from March MAU losses, with 201 Million estimated active users in the past 30 days

Early indicators seem to show Roblox is already recovering from it’s estimated March loss of 8 Million users, as reported by RTrack. From RTrack’s MAU Estimate tool, available to Complete users, past 30 day active user estimates climbed to 201 Million by April 13th 2021 from just 192 Million at the end of March.

In my March analysis article about post lockdown Roblox, I said this

Using Roblox’s past growth, we can extrapolate to see where Roblox would be now if that growth had continued at the same rate. If we take the growth of Roblox’s MAU between August 2019 and January 2021 as a reference for the trend at the time, we can see that from RTrack’s estimates MAU increased 19% from 100M to 119M in 5 months[7]. Per month that’s an increase of 3.8%, and compounded for the 12 months between January 2020 and January 2021 would translate to a MAU of 186.7 Million – only 13.3 Million less than current estimates.

What this could mean is that lockdowns have only accelerated growth that was going to happen anyway, and that the increase due to lockdowns is much lower than previously thought. Were the users that can be reasonably attributed to lockdowns to leave, Roblox would be seemingly minimally affected only losing 13 Million monthly active users.

“The next battle for the Roblox Metaverse: A return to normal” – RTrack Blog

This early data could be an indication of this being correct, though we don’t know for sure.

Roblox MAU Estimates from the RTrack MAU Estimates tool;

Is the market already reacting to this jump?

Between March 30th and April 12th, the Roblox stock price ($RBLX) rose from an end of day high of $66.98 to $77 by market close on April 12th. Similarly in this period, Roblox 30 Day active user estimates rose from 193 Million on March 30th to 202 Million on April 12th.

Logarithmic Scale, market data from Yahoo! Finance

Where RTrack’s data comes from

The data shown in this article that comes from RTrack comes from data visible to RTrack Complete members. You can find out more about RTrack membership here.