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UNSEEN DATA: How closely do Roblox’s DAU reports align with RTrack Enterprise’s estimates?

Ahead of Roblox’s Q3 earnings call tomorrow, 9th November, I wanted to take a quick look at how closely RTrack Enterprise’s DAU estimates follow the reported figures published by Roblox corp. RTrack Enterprise is a membership plan offered by RTrack, which allows access to our DAU & MAU estimates that each use a proprietary estimation system.

Learn more at: https://v3.rtrack.live/enterpriseplan or email enterprise@rtrack.live

Our estimates

It should be noted that RTrack does not estimate DAU or MAU figures with the goal of tracking or matching Roblox’s own reports. Our goal is to offer an independent estimate based on our own systems, and this should in turn widely follow Roblox’s own reports, but is not guaranteed to.

RTrack’s DAU estimate is a rolling estimate, showing¬†the number of people online on the Roblox site, or in a Roblox game, who have a registered Roblox account, in the previous 24 hours. It does not factor in calendar days and is instead simply a rolling average.

Comparisons

For the sake of this article, we’ll be looking at the date range of February to August 2021. RTrack has been and continues to record throughout that period and onwards to the present, however this data won’t be made public. This is the first article releasing RTrack’s estimates for this period.

Comparison of figure-to-figure, DAU estimates

This graph shows a direct comparison of our averages for each of the months preceding the dates shown on the bottom axis, with Roblox’s own reports. You can see that RTrack’s estimate trails behind somewhat, estimating mid 30’s at the start, while Roblox reports low 40s.

Comparison of month-on-month % change in DAU figures

This graph uses the same data as the previous, but compares the value for each month with the previous of the same type. RTrack’s estimates follow Roblox’s in direction every time, and for some months the change is very close, while on others it can be substantially different. This however appears to mainly be the case between months where the % change was much smaller.

Conclusion

As stated, RTrack’s estimates do not aim to replicate Roblox’s reports exactly, and use their own algorithm to independently estimate these figures. Frequently, this results in a close tracking of the figures reported by Roblox.

Looking to see this data for Q3 2021?

To see this data for Q3 2021, you will need an RTrack enterprise subscription. You can learn more about that here, or email us enterprise@rtrack.live